Crazy New Ideas

Paul Graham’s essay Crazy New Ideas argues that dismissing implausible-sounding ideas from competent domain experts is both risky and foolish.

Why These Ideas Matter

When reasonable experts propose seemingly crazy ideas, their implausibility becomes a positive signal. They must understand something you don’t, or they wouldn’t propose something “so wrong.”

“If the person proposing the idea is reasonable, then they know how implausible it sounds.”

Expected Value

These ideas need not succeed to be worth pursuing—they simply require sufficient probability of success relative to potential impact. Betting on the full portfolio of expert-proposed “crazy” ideas yields positive returns overall.

Why People Dismiss Them

Several culprits:

Envy
The ease of attacking nascent ideas
Vested interests in existing paradigms
The pervasive grip of current paradigms on our thinking

Paradigms form “the Lego blocks we build thoughts out of.”

Historical Blindness

Current paradigms obscure their own history. Copernicus’s heliocentric model took over a century to gain scientific acceptance, yet this history remains largely forgotten.

Practical Wisdom

Rather than dismissing such ideas, ask questions to understand the expert’s reasoning. Support these lonely truth-seekers—you’ll learn something valuable either way.