The Future of Web Startups

Paul Graham’s essay The Future of Web Startups predicts how cheap web startups will transform the ecosystem.

Ten Key Predictions

1. Lots of Startups: The barrier shifts from capital to courage
2. Standardization: “When technology makes something dramatically cheaper, standardization always follows”
3. New Attitude to Acquisition: Large companies treat acquisitions like hiring
4. Riskier Strategies Become Possible: Portfolio-thinking replaces risk aversion
5. Younger, Nerdier Founders: Demonstrate working products, not polished pitches
6. Startup Hubs Persist: Geography matters less for starting but more for succeeding
7. Better Judgment Required: Investors must evaluate thousands of applications
8. College Will Change: Users judge performance directly
9. Lots of Competitors: Easy entry encourages faster implementation
10. Faster Advances: Startups replace large companies as innovation centers

The Metaphor

The startup ecosystem is upgrading from “narrow, twisty pipes” to “a single, huge pipe” where performance metrics propagate directly.

My Takeaway

As startups become cheaper, more people will attempt entrepreneurship. Competition doesn’t create zero-sum conditions—it accelerates everything.

How have these predictions held up? I’d love to hear at persdre@gmail.com.