The Risk of Discovery

Paul Graham’s essay The Risk of Discovery argues that we misunderstand the risk tolerance of famous scientists because historical accounts distort our perception.

The Selection Bias Problem

Biographies emphasize successful work while omitting failures. Newton’s physics achievements dominate his biography, while his alchemy and theology pursuits are downplayed. This creates an illusion of “unerring judgment.”

The Hindsight Bias Problem

We judge past choices through our current knowledge. “Physics seems to us a promising thing to work on, and alchemy and theology obvious wastes of time. But that’s because we know how things turned out.”

In Newton’s era, all three fields appeared comparably worthwhile.

The Core Insight

Newton essentially made three substantial bets on different intellectual pursuits. Only one succeeded spectacularly, but all were genuinely risky at the time.

The distinction between his “smartness” and perceived “craziness” may be artificial—his willingness to explore uncertain intellectual territory was itself part of his brilliance.

My Takeaway

Groundbreaking achievement requires accepting genuine uncertainty and risk, not following paths already validated by convention.

What risky intellectual bets are you making? I’d love to hear at persdre@gmail.com.